Jan 31, 2024 — Canada’s real gross domestic product edged up 0.2% in November, but two industries key to Ontario’s economy, manufacturing and residential housing construction, continue to lag from industry peaks, according to data today released by Statistics Canada.

The Statistics Canada report doesn’t provide provincial breakdowns and is based on 2017 constant dollars.

In November 2023, residential housing construction generated $56.1 billion in economic activity, down $12.6 billion from the industry peak of $68.8 billion in April 2021.

Strength in the housing construction industry is critical to relieving an ongoing housing supply crisis in Ontario blamed for inflating housing rents and prices.

To meet demand and restore price balance by 2031, Ontario’s Housing Affordability Task Force has projected Ontario needs to construct 1.5 million more housing units. However, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation data for November showed Ontario’s housing starts continue to fall behind the pace of some other provinces and well below the level needed to satisfy unmet demand.

Statistics Canada’s labour force estimate for December showed the Ontario construction industry shed 51,300 jobs since August 2023. In December 2023, the industry, which has considerable seasonal cycles, was down 23,600 jobs from December 2022.

In November, manufacturing posted a slight recovery from October, which was the lowest month for manufacturing in the past 25 months. Manufacturing contributed $212.1 billion to GDP in November, down $5.9 billion from its March 2022 peak of $218.0 billion.

Transportation equipment manufacturing, once an anchor of the Ontario economy, contributed $29.4 billion to GDP, down $1.7 billion from the industry’s February 2020 peak.

Today’s GDP data adds to worrisome signals that Ontario’s economy is underperforming in critical areas and in contrast to other provinces.