February 7, 2024 — Despite announcements, re-announcements and reverse announcements, Ontario’s PC government is further from bringing balance to the housing and rental markets than in 2022, when the PCs promised their policies would spur construction of 1.5 million housing units by 2031.

Ontario’s poor outcomes stand in sharp contrast with results in British Columbia, where policy shifts have come with higher levels of construction, and suggest a significant factor in the Ontario housing crises is the person sitting in the premier’s chair.

In December, Ontario housing starts fell for the third consecutive month, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data, down 4.5 per cent from November and a whopping 36 per cent from December 2022. Ontario construction workers started 6.7 per cent few housing units in 2023 than 2022.

Not surprisingly, Ontario’s decline in housing activity has paralleled a loss of 20,000 construction jobs between July and December, according to Statistics Canada.

But in B.C., and despite the headwinds from high interest rates affecting projects across Canada, housing starts increased in December, 2023. In all of 2023, B.C. workers started building 11 per cent more housing units than in 2022. That’s good news for people searching for affordable housing and good news for construction workers.

In December, B.C. construction workers started building 4,954 units. In Ontario – a province with three times the population – only 5,381 units were started.

Just prior to the PCs’ 2022 re-election, Ontario’s Housing Affordability Task Force projected an additional 1.5 million additional housing units need to be constructed by December 2031 to meet demand and bring price balance to the housing market.

At that time, 1.5 million new housing starts by 2031 required starting 12,500 new units each month for 120 months. But every single month, Ontario’s PC policies have failed to hit targets. In December, they didn’t even make it half way.

While the PCs have fallen behind, demand has continued to move ahead, creating even more distance between targets and reality. Now, reaching the Housing Affordability Task Force goal would require almost 15,000 housing unit starts in each of the remaining 96 months.

Some may despair that Ontario’s mounting challenge is now an impossible task. But the B.C. experience shows the level of construction needed to start 1.5 million units by 2031 is still possible.

People should not be surprised there will be significantly different outcomes when policies aim to make housing construction boom rather than focus on creating wealth for land hoarders and speculators.

Policy changes by B.C.’s NDP government have brought new investment into non-profit housing construction and made critical tweaks and nudges to spur private investment. The B.C. NDP government has figured out that effectively addressing a housing crisis doesn’t come from doing one thing or doing another thing. It comes with doing everything.

A B.C.-scale effort brought to Ontario would be hitting targets – even the higher targets need to make up for lost time. And would support paycheques and jobs for construction industry workers.

B.C. housing minister Ravi Kahlon has received widespread praise for his all-hands-on-deck approach to housing. And he’s getting results. But no one should underestimate the severity of the challenge faced in B.C. It’s a province where the former governing party did nothing while knowing hockey bags of cash were being laundered through casinos and dirty money was being parked in the housing market.

Smaller policy shifts by the BC NDP in their first term didn’t add up to the necessary impact. Now they’ve dug deeper, like the next Ontario government will need to do.

For those seeking to replace Doug Ford because they actually want to solve the problems he has left behind,exploring the B.C. housing effort would be a smart next step. Leave the empty slogans to others. Millions of frustrated voters have real problems and are aching for solutions. Trust they will reward those preparing them.

— Tom Parkin